Senator Paul J. Massicotte

The ongoing war of words between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the U.S. President Donald Trump over NAFTA renegotiations is political gold for the prime minister in the short term, say Parliamentarians and pollsters, but could prove to be a major political liability in the long term if the North American Free Trade Agreement is not renewed and the Canadian economy takes a hit.

“People are very kind and very sympathetic, but if ever it affects their bottom line, they become a little less patient, a little bit less sympathetic and there’s no question if you have a serious trade war [with] the United States it will affect consumer income and consumer costs of living and choice,” said Quebec Ind. Sen. Paul Massicotte, vice-chair of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group, in an interview with The Hill Times.

“They love you when things go well or when it doesn’t cost them something, but if it’s going to cost them something, then they get a little bit more choosy about how they support you,” said Sen. Massicotte.

The testy exchange between the two leaders started after Mr. Trump departed Canada after attending the G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Que., two weeks ago, to meet with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore. In defending Canada’s trade interests at a wrap-up news conference following the G7 meeting, Mr. Trudeau said that Canadians are “polite” and “reasonable” people but won’t be “pushed around” by the U.S. on the tariff dispute on steel and aluminum. He also said it was an “insult” that President Trump had justified those tariffs by invoking a risk to national security.

In reaction, Mr. Trump went after Mr. Trudeau on Twitter, calling him “meek and mild” and “very dishonest and weak.” In Singapore, Mr. Trump told reporters that Mr. Trudeau’s comment that Canada will not be “pushed around,” would end up costing Canadians “a lot of money.” Later, U.S. director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow and U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro doubled down in media interviews, criticizing Mr. Trudeau. Mr. Kudlow said the prime minister had “stabbed us in the back” and Mr. Navarro said that “there’s a special place in hell for any leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy” with Mr. Trump. Two days later, Mr. Navarro publicly apologized for his choice of words.

In reaction to the verbal salvos from the U.S. president, federal and provincial opposition parties in Canada publicly expressed their support for Mr. Trudeau’s position on the NAFTA negotiations. Former prime minister Stephen Harper went on Fox News and criticized President Trump for going after Mr. Trudeau. Last week, the House unanimously passed an NDP motion blasting the U.S. actions and rhetoric from the senior-most levels of the government considering the long and “mutually-beneficial trading relationship.”

A poll published by Angus Reid Institute last week revealed that Mr. Trudeau’s approval rating went up 12 points to 52 per cent this month, compared to 40 per cent in March. The same poll also indicated that 62 per cent of Canadians said that the prime minister had handled the spat with Mr. Trump well. According to the poll, the Liberals had the support of 36 per cent of Canadians nationally, compared to the 32 per cent for the Conservatives, and 16 per cent for the NDP. The poll of 1,022 Canadians was conducted between June 7-June 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

To capitalize on the level of goodwill that Mr. Trudeau has received in recent days, some are even speculating about the possibility of the prime minister calling a federal election on the premise of earning a new mandate to deal with Canada-U.S. relations, including iPoliticscolumnist Susan Delacourt, who wrote last week that Mr. Trudeau could tell the Governor General “that he needs an entirely new mandate to deal with this crisis in Canada-U.S. relations.”

“There was no such thing as a Trump presidency when Canadians last went to the polls in 2015—Trudeau could argue that it’s time we elected a government specifically to deal with the clear and present danger that the American president is posing to the Canadian economy.”

But pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research said that a snap election call by Mr. Trudeau would be a very risky move, and could backfire.

“What would the reason be for the election, given all Trudeau’s major domestic foes have rallied to him in this fight?” said Mr. Lyle. “If there was an argument over what our position should be, then there would be a reason.”

Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research also said that it’s a risky idea, but could also prove to be an opportunity for the Liberals to neutralize some politically-sensitive issues such as pipelines, pot legalization, and carbon pricing before they become serious problems for the government in 2019.

“A snap election where the Liberals run against Trump could clear the deck of controversial issues like pipelines, pot, and pricing carbon,” said Mr. Nanos. “It could be a risky move as an early and, some might say, unnecessary election, but may present an opportunity for the federal Liberals.  This would effectively be a Liberal smash-and-grab attempt to preempt a tough election run in 2019.”

Liberal MP Wayne Easter (Malpeque, P.E.I.), a co-chair of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group, said in an interview said that there are now fixed election date laws in Canada—which were brought in, he said, specifically to prevent parties “playing political games with election dates”—and said he expects there would be “backlash” if the government didn’t follow the fixed October 2019 election date. He said that he didn’t want to “get into whether it’s helping the party or not” but noted Canadians are coming together behind the government on this issue.

“Even the official opposition, third party, and others are there to back up the prime minister, that this is Canadians sticking together to try and achieve an agreement that makes sense,” said Mr. Easter.

Despite President Trump’s recent comments about trade negotiations and Mr. Trudeau, he said he doesn’t think anything has changed in terms of the “attitudes of our negotiators.”

“They’re plodding along, trying to get to an agreement,” said Mr. Easter. “There’s always sidebars, whether it’s some of the things that President Trump is saying, whether it’s the dairy [supply management issue], whether it’s autos, whether it’s cyber security, there’s always those sidebars and you have to work your way through them.”

The Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group held its annual general meeting in Ottawa June 15 to 17, which was attended by American legislators and in which issues such as NAFTA, money laundering, terrorism financing, cybersecurity, and global conflict were discussed.

Conservative MP Randy Hoback (Prince Albert, Sask.), vice chair of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group, said the AGM gave members a “good chance to talk about trade,” along with border and security issues and Canada’s move to legalize recreational marijuana.

“New marijuana legislation—what’s that going to do to the border? How’s it going to impact wait times? We’re hearing some very staggering numbers out of the U.S.,” said Mr. Hoback.

Mr. Hoback said if the Liberal government has seen any boost in domestic support as a result of the current trade spat and Mr. Trump’s remarks, “they should be embarrassed about it.”

“They shouldn’t have let it get to this point,” he said. “The reality is properly handling the file, properly handling the president, keeping it simple, keeping it focused on trade, and then focusing on other commonalities, not allowing the personalities to come into the relationship—I think we would have been further ahead.”

Mr. Hoback said the Liberal government should focus on toning down temperatures on trade, particularly in light of increased chatter around the possibility of a tariff on auto parts.

“I think you have to take what’s going on in this relationship very, very serious,” he said. “I don’t want to see it cranked up and become an emotional discussion, it needs to be toned down.”

“Our government has to make sure that we’re not tone deaf and that we’re, we can read the room, and be cognizant of what’s of concern, what the big concerns are to the Americans, and to the American administration, and speak to them about it as adults,” said Sen. MacDonald.

Sen. MacDonald also suggested the government should avoid “airing our dirty laundry in public.”

“We’ve got to stop worrying about what Trump says or what people say in public and respond to things, we have no control over that,” he said.

Getting into a full out trade war would be a “huge mistake” for both Canada and the U.S., but our southern neighbours “can buffer it better than we can, we’re a smaller economy,” said Sen. MacDonald.

“The government has to be determined to avoid a trade war. Now that’s not saying that when they threaten to put tariffs on we’re not going to put equivalent tariffs on stuff, of course we are, but both countries should avoid that [trade war],” he said.

“It’s a two-way negotiation and we have to be smarter, more adroit, more resourceful and more cautious, we have to be all those things.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Massicotte, a former Liberal Senator who joined the Independent Senators Group in October, said that the next election is 16 months away and it’s not clear whether the jump in support for the prime minister and his party in the polls will stay in place until that time or not.

“By the time the election comes all this will hopefully be irrelevant,” said Sen. Massicotte. “What they’ve got to do all the time is behave in a way that is consistent to our best long-term interests, to sign a free trade agreement, to resolve these issues in an amicable, mutual manner. It’s just that there’s a rough patch going on at this point.”

Sen. Massicotte said the best path forward for the Canadian government is to keep a “cool head,” noting President Trump has a history of making threats and bullying behaviour and later backing down.

“That’s his game. Look at the hell and fury that he wagered on North Korea, he threatened their elimination. So that’s his style, there’s no limit,” he said.

Last week, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) called out the U.S. for its overly assertive approach to international trade and security issues in a speech at an event in Washington, D.C., where she was named the diplomat of the year by Foreign Policy magazine.

“You may feel today that your size allows you to go mano-a-mano with your traditional adversaries and be guaranteed to win. But if history tells us one thing, it is that no one nation’s pre-eminence is eternal,” Ms. Freeland said “That is why the far wiser path—and the more enduring one—is to strengthen our existing alliance of liberal democracies.”

During the two-day visit to Washington D.C., Ms. Freeland also made a presentation to the influential U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, asking them to continue advancing the NAFTA negotiations and help put an end to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Canada and the U.S. have agreed to continue “intensive” talks this summer.

By ABBAS RANA.